We revisit the association between trade and GDP comovement for 135 countries from 1970 to 2009. Guided by a simple theory, we introduce two notions of trade linkages: (i) the usual direct bilateral trade index and (ii) new indexes of common exposure to third countries capturing the role of similarity in trade networks. Both measures are economically and statistically associated with GDP correlation, suggesting an additional channel through which GDP fluctuations propagate through trade linkages. Moreover, high income countries become more synchronized when the content of their trade is tilted towards inputs while trade in final goods is key for low income countries. Finally, we present evidence that the density of the international trade network is associated with an amplification of the association between global trade flows and bilateral GDP comovement, leading to a significant evolution of the TC-slope over the last two decades.
What is the relationship between international trade and business cycle synchronization? Using data from 40 countries, we find that GDP comovement is significantly associated with trade in intermediate inputs but not with trade in final goods. Motivated by this new fact, we build a model of international trade that is able to replicate the empirical trade-comovement slope, offering the first quantitative solution for the Trade Comovement Puzzle. The model relies on (i) global value chains, (ii) price distortions due to monopolistic competition and (iii) fluctuations in the mass of firms serving each country. The combination of these ingredients creates a link between domestic measured productivity and foreign shocks through trade linkages, generating a disconnect between technology and measured productivity. Finally, we provide empirical evidence for the importance of these elements in generating a link between foreign shocks and domestic GDP.
Slides here, paper invited in the Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings (2019).
This paper introduces a theory of entrepreneurial assets transfer consistent with empirical evidence and centered around a business for sale market that values firms based on their intangible assets. We consider the key endogenous entrepreneurial choices to purchase, found, sell or liquidate business assets and the equilibrium price designed to capture both the intertemporal and the intangible value of a firm. We distinguish early-stage and mature firms as the latter are less likely to fail, make higher profits and face less stringent financial constraints. We argue that maturity translates the intangible value of a firm. We discipline our model using U.S. surveys and a new dataset of business selling transactions. We show that the absence of the business for sale market leads to a severe drop in aggregate output. Then, decomposing the effects of maturity, we show how they shape aggregate outcomes and wealth concentration.
This paper introduces a quantitative general equilibrium model with risky entrepreneur- ship and search frictions designed to endogenously match the magnitude of the occupa- tional flows between entrepreneurship, paid-employment and unemployment. The model also accounts for the general shape of these flows as well as key entrepreneurial and labor market features in the US, based mostly on micro CPS and SCF data. We use this model to examine the mitigation of the bias created by most current unemployment insurance programs in favor of paid-employment and at the expense of self-employment. We show that an entrepreneurial insurance program can significantly reduce this bias and we de- compose the elements that most contribute to this reduction. Comparing this policy to an entrepreneurial subsidy, we find that entrepreneurial insurance selects more talented, wealthier, faster growing and longer lasting entrepreneurs from the unemployment pool. Finally, we find that UI system attributes have a significant impact on entrepreneurship, which might be an important additional concern for optimal UI design.
Slides here, presented in Pyrenean Macroeconomics Workshop (2019), ESEM (2018), Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings (2018), ADEMU workshop « Risk Sharing and Macroeconomic Interdependencies » in Prague (2018), SED (2017), ADEMU conference (2017), XXII Workshop on Dynamic Macroeconomics in Vigo (2017), CEF (2017)